In this new analysis, TIME states: When Iran signed the JCPOA nuclear deal with the Obama administration, the reception, particularly in the Persian Gulf sheikhdoms, was lukewarm at best. Therefore, when then-U.S. President Donald Trump withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018, these countries welcomed the move. Now, these same sheikhdoms oppose war with Iran and support renewed engagement.
There are two main reasons for this opposition. First, Israel’s recent attacks did not occur in isolation. Over the past 20 months, following Hamas’s October 7 attack, Israel has launched a deadly and destructive campaign in Gaza, leading to a genocide case at the International Court of Justice in The Hague. Israel has also expanded its military presence beyond the occupied Golan Heights in Syria amid the chaos following Bashar al-Assad’s ousting and has repeatedly targeted Beirut and parts of Lebanon, including last week.
In short, even among countries highly critical of Iran, there is growing concern about an unrestrained Israel. The prospect of a new regional order in which Israel acts with impunity while dictating security norms to its neighbors is deeply undesirable for Arab states, including traditionally pro-Western governments like Saudi Arabia and Jordan.
The second reason is more fundamental. For decades, Arab societies have criticized the West’s selective enforcement of international norms. This includes the 2003 U.S. war on Iraq, Israel’s ongoing occupation of the West Bank and Gaza, and recent U.S. actions against the International Criminal Court and its judges. There is a perception that powerful Western countries have become a shield for Tel Aviv.
This is why a U.S. bombing of Iran, using the most powerful non-nuclear bomb in its arsenal, would set a dangerous precedent.
The article concludes: The war between Iran and Israel, at least for now, has ended. A new era is emerging in the region, defined by the entitlement of powerful states. The implications of this are not yet fully understood, but it will likely have significant aftershocks
