Avash News: Under the shadow of increasing tension between Iran, Israel, and the US, what appears at first glance to be a military conflict, at a deeper level represents a threat to one of the most fragile and, at the same time, most unique global marine ecosystems—an ecosystem that scientists describe as being on the “edge of collapse,” under the simultaneous pressure of climate change, irregular expansion of industrial activities, and the shadow of war. If this trend continues, what happens in the Persian Gulf will not be merely a regional crisis but a biological disaster on a global scale—a disaster whose consequences will affect areas from the Bushehr coast and Bandar Abbas to Doha and Dubai, and extend from energy economics to water security.
It must be noted that the functional and ecological sustainability of marine ecosystems is a vital condition for the biological, food, and livelihood security of regional countries. Due to special environmental features and the existence of habitats such as coral reefs, mangrove forests, seagrass beds, and reef ecosystems, the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman are considered among the most important regions in the Western Indian Ocean with high biodiversity.
An ecosystem standing on the edge of survival
For marine biodiversity experts, the Persian Gulf is more than just a body of water. The region is regarded as one of the most unique natural laboratories in the world. Water temperatures exceed 35 degrees Celsius, and salinity ranges between 40 and 42 grams per liter—conditions that are lethal for many marine species.
However, species living in the region, including coral reefs, have adapted to these conditions over thousands of years and have become among the most heat-resilient marine organisms. Yet this very advantage has turned into a vulnerability. Recent research shows that Persian Gulf coral reefs, once symbols of resilience, have reached their maximum endurance threshold. Increases in water temperature, ocean acidification, and declines in dissolved oxygen have placed the ecosystem under a state of permanent stress.
Under such conditions, any new shock—from subsurface explosions to oil and chemical contamination—can destroy its fragile balance. When an ecosystem stands on the verge of collapse, even small additional pressure can trigger a domino effect. Increased energy consumption by organisms for survival, reduced growth rates, cessation of reproduction, and widespread larval mortality form a chain of events capable of disrupting the entire food web within a few seasons. This means that the Persian Gulf is not only facing an environmental crisis but is also at risk of silent extinction.
A War initiated underwater
The public perception of war is usually limited to surface explosions and visible conflicts, but a critical dimension of modern warfare occurs underwater, where sound waves, explosion-induced vibrations, and heavy traffic from military vessels directly affect marine life.
Studies show that noise generated by warships and sonar systems can disrupt the navigation systems of marine mammals such as dolphins and may even lead to their death.
Underwater explosions can also destroy seabeds, which serve as essential habitats for seagrass growth and juvenile marine species. Such destruction is often invisible but produces severe long-term ecological consequences.
Bushehr: A marine Chernobyl
One of the most sensitive points in this equation is the Bushehr power plant—a facility built according to high-level safety standards but located in a region of intense military tension, raising serious concerns.
Unlike open oceans, the Persian Gulf is a semi-enclosed body of water in which water exchange occurs over a period of approximately three to five years. This means that any pollution, particularly radioactive contamination, would remain trapped in the environment for extended periods.
A radioactive leakage scenario—whether caused by direct attack or damage to cooling systems—could rapidly evolve into a regional crisis. Circulating currents in the Persian Gulf could spread contamination across the entire basin, affecting countries along the southern coast, including Kuwait, Qatar, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia.
The consequences of such an incident would extend far beyond environmental damage. Fisheries could collapse, desalination plants could fail, and millions of people could face severe shortages of drinking water. Such a scenario would constitute a humanitarian disaster.
Historical memory of disaster: From Kuwait to the Persian Gulf
To understand the true scale of this threat, history must be recalled. During the 1991 Persian Gulf War, Iraqi forces caused one of the worst environmental disasters by deliberately destroying oil wells in Kuwait. More than 600 oil wells were ignited, and approximately 8 to 10 million barrels of oil entered the Persian Gulf. Oil slicks spread across thousands of kilometers of the sea surface, severely damaging marine ecosystems.
Studies have shown that some marine habitats failed to recover even after more than a decade. This experience demonstrates that the environmental consequences of war extend far beyond the duration of the conflict itself.
Ticking bomb on water
Kharg Island and the complex network of oil and gas platforms in the Persian Gulf could become major danger points if conflicts intensify. An attack on any of these installations could result in widespread oil leakage that would be extremely difficult to control under wartime conditions.
Crude oil forms a film on the water surface that prevents oxygen exchange and blocks sunlight penetration. This can cause widespread suffocation of marine organisms and disrupt the entire marine food chain.
Marine mammals such as dolphins and dugongs—species for which the Persian Gulf represents one of their last remaining habitats—would likely be among the first victims.
Why Kharg Island is important for the Persian Gulf ecosystem
Kharg Island is not merely a geographic location; it represents the central hub of Iran’s oil exports. Estimates indicate that a substantial portion of Iran’s crude oil exports originates from terminals located on this island, making it one of the most sensitive potential targets during military conflict.
Damage to storage facilities, pipelines, or loading terminals could result in massive and uncontrolled oil spills within hours. Unlike typical industrial accidents, wartime conditions would severely limit rapid response and pollution containment capabilities.
Under such circumstances, spilled crude oil would spread rapidly across the surface and remain trapped due to the limited circulation patterns of the Persian Gulf. This oil layer would block light and oxygen from reaching underwater ecosystems and contaminate nearby coastal habitats such as mangrove forests and seagrass beds, rendering them uninhabitable for years.
Air pollution resulting from burning oil storage facilities could release toxic gases and fine particulate matter capable of affecting populations along southern Iran and neighboring countries. Under such circumstances, Kharg Island would become not just a military target but the origin of a regional environmental and humanitarian crisis.
When war kills the jungle
Mangrove forests along Iran’s southern coastline represent one of the least visible yet most critical victims of environmental conflict. These ecosystems play essential roles in stabilizing soil, absorbing carbon, and preserving biodiversity.
Oil contamination can suffocate mangrove roots and cause widespread forest death. The destruction of mangrove ecosystems removes one of the most effective natural barriers against coastal erosion and climate change.
A policy that ends the ecosystem
At the geopolitical level, the Persian Gulf has long been viewed as a strategic hub where energy interests, power rivalries, and maritime security intersect. However, insufficient attention has been given to the ecological consequences of these competitions.
War in the Persian Gulf now represents not only disruptions in oil supply but also direct threats to biological systems that sustain millions of lives.
When the Persian Gulf faces dehydration
If oil functions as the economic engine of the Persian Gulf, water functions as its lifeline. Countries surrounding the Persian Gulf rely heavily on seawater desalination technologies. In some states, more than 90 percent of freshwater supplies originate from desalination plants.
This dependence represents a significant vulnerability. Oil, chemical, or radioactive contamination could enter intake systems and compromise drinking water supplies. In a crisis, desalination plants would be forced either to shut down or continue operating at the risk of distributing contaminated water.
Cities such as Dubai, Doha, and Kuwait City could experience severe water shortages within days. Such conditions could trigger social instability, forced migration, and new geopolitical tensions.
War in this context becomes a struggle not for land or energy, but for water—the most fundamental element of survival.
The second memory: From Deepwater Horizon to the Persian Gulf
To understand the magnitude of such threats, the 2010 Deepwater Horizon disaster in the Gulf of Mexico provides an instructive example. Approximately 4.9 million barrels of oil were released into the ocean, and it took more than 87 days to control the spill.
Even in an open ocean with significant natural dispersal capacity, the environmental consequences were devastating. Coastal ecosystems were contaminated, wildlife populations declined dramatically, and ecological recovery required years.
In the Persian Gulf—an enclosed and shallow basin—the consequences of a similar event would be significantly more severe and long-lasting.
A no-return path
Unlike built infrastructure, natural ecosystems cannot be rapidly reconstructed. Coral reefs require decades to recover, mangrove forests regenerate slowly, and many marine species may disappear permanently once habitats are destroyed.
Cooperation is vital
Despite political tensions, the coastal states of the Persian Gulf share a single interconnected ecosystem. Pollution originating in one area inevitably spreads to others, making regional cooperation essential rather than optional.
Silence: Complicity with Disaster
What is unfolding in the Persian Gulf today represents a multi-layered crisis—a convergence of war, climate change, and environmental pressure that could evolve into one of the largest ecological disasters of the century.
Silence in the face of such threats is not merely indifference; it risks becoming complicity in a process capable of permanently altering the future of the region.
Final reflection
The Persian Gulf is not merely a body of water; it is part of the Earth’s living memory—a memory that, once destroyed, cannot be replaced. The critical question remains whether the world will hear the warning before this sea turns into a desert.
