AVASH NEWS: The earth’s atmosphere has an interconnected structure and has a close relationship with surface waters, in such a way that any change in some climatic elements, including temperature and weather pressure in a region, can affect distant areas. This relationship in climatology is known as “patterns of teleconnections.”
One of the most important such patterns is “El Nino.” It is a phenomenon that happens as a result of the periodic and unusual warming of waters on the surface of the Pacific Ocean in areas near the equator, which can change the patterns of pressure and precipitation in different parts of the world.
The effects of El Nino are not just confined to changes in precipitation. An increase in temperature during warm periods of the year can increase energy consumption, and in the agricultural sector, as temperature and precipitation change, food security is also affected. An increase in the likelihood of wildfires in plains and forests is among the other consequences in some areas.
In Iran, one of the most important questions concerning this phenomenon is the likelihood of its affecting autumn precipitation. Climatic studies show that sometimes El Nino has caused an increase in precipitation in the west, southwest, and parts of southern Iran. However, this has not been a repeated pattern during all El Nino periods, and one cannot predict a year with high precipitation based on that.
However, in recent days, some weather experts and environmentalists have talked about the likelihood of an increase in this year’s autumn precipitation beyond the normal level, particularly in parts of the Zagros and southern parts of the Alborz. An issue which, if realized, can increase the likelihood of floods, soil erosion, and landslides, creating challenges for different sectors, including agriculture and the country’s water infrastructure.
El Nino cannot predict Iran’s precipitation rate on its own
Eisa Bozorg-zadeh, spokesperson for Iran’s Water Industry, emphasized that a country’s precipitation rate cannot solely be predicted based on El Nino. “Iran’s climate is influenced by El Nino and La Nina, as well as systems like the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), Mediterranean systems, and local climatic conditions.”
Precipitation will likely increase by 30 to 50 percent
Meanwhile, a review of four to five valid climatic models shows that in the next few months, the coincidence of an increase in temperature and an increase in precipitation is very high. According to the outcomes of these models, from the first to the last month of autumn, the precipitation rate can increase by 30 to 50 percent compared to the usual periods.
While this is only one of the existing patterns, such an increase during autumn can amount to about a 10–15 percent increase in annual precipitation.
